MUSC COVID-19 Epidemiology Intelligence Project

About the Project

MUSC's COVID-19 Epidemiology Intelligence Project analysis has been developed to:

1. Provide analysis of trends in the COVID-19 epidemic to assist with understanding the current and projected status of transmission, impacts to the community and hospital system, and the success of mitigation efforts. Our goal is also to provide information that can help assess each stage of the pandemic and provide vital health information to our community.
2. Help us better understand and predict the critical needs of our hospitals, health care teams, in the Charleston, Berkeley, Dorchester, Florence, Marion, Darlington, Williamsburg, Chester, Lancaster, Kershaw, Richland, and Fairfield communities so that we can plan for and mitigate the impact of COVID-19 to the best of our ability.
3. Provide reliable data to help guide and support decision making by policymakers, business leaders, and members of the general public across the aforementioned regions.

Data used in trend analysis comes from SCDHEC, MUSC clinical data, and The Center for Disease Control. Data used in the models comes from the Census Bureau, literature reviews, The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and internal clinical data.

How Often Are the Graphs Updated?

The goal of the project is to update analysis once per week.

Project Team

• Michael D. Sweat, Ph.D., professor, MUSC Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences; director, Division of Global and Community Health; and faculty director, MUSC Center for Global Health – Project Director
• Veronique Whittaker, MPH, Lead research analyst, Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Division of Global and Community Health
• Eric Meissner, M.D., Ph.D., assistant professor, Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases
• Kathleen Ellis, executive director, MUSC Center for Global Health

With special thanks to:

• Claire Bailey, MPH, RD, former program coordinator, Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Division of Global and Community Health
• Virginia “Ginny” Fonner, Ph.D., MPH, former assistant professor, Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Division of Global and Community Health

And our medical student volunteers from early 2020:

• William “Alex” Parler, MUSC College of Medicine student
• Gregory "Brian" Elmore, MUSC College of Medicine student

Methods & Metrics

• Weekly Percent Change of MUSC Emergency Department Visits with a COVID-19, Flu, or RSV Diagnosis -This is the change in the weekly percentage of people in Emergency Departments due to Influenza-like-illness across MUSC's regional hospitals. These percentages are drawn directly from internal MUSC data.  
• Average Weekly Deaths due to COVID-19 -This is the average number of weekly deaths due to COVID-19 per 100k people in South Carolina. These data are drawn from: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_weeklydeaths_totaldeathratecrude_45
• Percentage of Emergency Room Visits for COVID-19, Flu, and RSV in South Carolina -These data are presented by the CDC and are updated weekly. Data available at: https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/2023-Respiratory-Virus-Response-NSSP-Emergency-Dep/vutn-jzwm
• MUSC Inpatient COVID-19, Influenza, RSV Patients -These data come directly from MUSC and are reported daily counts. We update these data weekly. If the cases are below 5, we will report this as an N/A.
• South Carolina COVID-19 Wastewater Viral Activity Levels -These are current wastewater viral activity levels of SARS-COV-2 across wastewater treatment plants or sampling locations in the state of South Carolina. These levels are drawn from CDC and are updated weekly. Data available at: https://www.cdc.gov/nwss/rv/COVID19-statetrend.html?stateval=South%20Carolina
• Household Pulse Survey -These data are drawn from The U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, as part of an ongoing partnership between the Census Bureau and The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and includes questions to assess the prevalence of post-COVID-19 conditions (long COVID), on the experimental Household Pulse Survey. These data are weighted, and the details can be found at: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/pulse/long-covid.htm

Covid-19 Impact Criterion for Level Status

These community risk levels are informed by The Center for Disease Control's calculation of COVID-19 risk and public health recommendations. The thresholds are for the Charleston Metro Area (Charleston, Berkeley, and Dorchester). Further information can be found on the CDC website (Center for Disease Control and Prevention Website).

We report the growth rate of COVID-19 in weekly Internal MUSC Emergency Department visits and hospital admissions per 100k people. Risk Levels are defined as follows: Low, Medium, and High. We will include the wastewater data if it becomes available across all sites again.

LOW: The weekly ED visits are under 5% for two consecutive weeks.
MEDIUM: The weekly ED visits are above 5%. 
HIGH: The weekly ED visits are above 10%.    
Metrics shown reflect the day events occurred, not the day they were reported. DHEC releases data on a weekly basis.