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MUSC COVID-19 Epidemiology Intelligence Project

MUSC global health epidemiologists and scientists present graphs to model the effects of COVID-19 in the regions MUSC serves. 

COVID-19 Status Summary by Location

Choose a region in South Carolina to view the status summary. Updated Feb. 20th 2026

Charleston Area Information

 

Chart describes what to do if an alert is low, medium, or high for COVID-19.

TriCounty region dashboard showing +34% ED visits for respiratory illness alongside decreases in inpatient COVID, Flu, and RSV counts; wastewater levels are moderate.

Line chart showing statewide COVID-19 wastewater viral activity levels in South Carolina from 2022 to early 2026. Repeated peaks occur during winter and late summer periods, with lower activity between surges.

Line graph of weekly COVID-19 ED visit percentages by region (Nov–Feb). Shows a large summer spike peaking near 3.5%, but rates are currently stable and low (mostly below 1%) across all regions.

Multi-year trend line (Jan 2023–Jan 2026) for SC ED visits involving COVID, Flu, and RSV. Shows a seasonal peak in early 2026 reaching ~12% combined cases, which is now sharply declining.

 

Line graph of hospitalized respiratory patients in the Charleston area (2024–2026). Shows a decline from a recent peak of ~40 combined cases, currently stabilizing near 20.

Line chart of Charleston Children's ER visits. Highlights a volatile season with a sharp, recent spike in Influenza cases, approaching 10% in the latest data.

Line chart showing the percentage of emergency department visits with diagnosed COVID-19 at MUSC Charleston Children’s Hospital over time, including a brief late-summer spike.

A graph shows the number of COVID-19 cases (per 100K) in the Charleston area between 2020 - 2023. The largest spike was January 2022.

Information details the prevalence of Long-COVID in SC among adults 18-years and older. 31% reported having COVID. 8% of all SC adults currently report experiencing post-COVID symptoms. 1.1% of all SC adults report currently experiencing long-term symptoms that reduce their ability to carry out day-to-day activities.

Florence Area Information

Respiratory Illness Data Tracker in text, representing COVID, Flu, and RSV

A graph shows Florence Area is relatively low for respiratory illnesses at the current time.

A graph showing the recommendations for public health for COVID-19, with threats are LOW, MEDIUM, and HIGH. When low, get tested and stay up-to-date. When medium, get tested, stay up-to-date, and talk to your healthcare provider if you are high risk. When threat of COVID is high, get tested, stay up-to-date, wear a mask indoors, and consider talking to your healthcare provider if you are high risk.

A data dashboard for Florence showing a 24% weekly decrease in respiratory emergency visits. While average weekly COVID-19 deaths are 0, inpatient data shows a mixed trend: a 67% decrease in COVID-19 patients and a 50% decrease in RSV, contrasted by a 500% increase in Flu patients.

Line chart showing SARS-CoV-2 wastewater viral activity levels in South Carolina from 2022 to 2026, with recurring seasonal peaks and troughs over time.

A line chart tracking the percentage of ED visits with diagnosed COVID-19. The data highlights a significant late-summer surge peaking in August, where the Midlands (grey) approaches 4% and Catawba (red) exceeds 3%. Winter rates are comparatively lower and more volatile, generally fluctuating between 0.5% and 2%.

Line chart showing the percentage of emergency department visits for COVID-19, influenza, and RSV in the MUSC Pee Dee region from November 2023 to January 2026. Influenza shows strong winter peaks, RSV shows smaller winter increases, and COVID-19 displays lower but noticeable late-summer and winter activity. Combined respiratory visits peak during winter months.

SCRespGraphicJan16th2026.png A line chart showing the percentage of Emergency Room visits for COVID-19, Flu, and RSV in South Carolina from 2023 to 2026. The chart illustrates three distinct winter peaks driven by Influenza. The current peak in January 2026 reaches about 12%, which is lower than the January 2024 peak of roughly 16%.

A line chart tracking patients hospitalized with respiratory viruses in the MUSC Florence area. The "Combined" trend (grey) peaks sharply each winter, driven primarily by Influenza (blue), which reaches around 30-35 patients during surges. COVID-19 (red) shows moderate, steady waves peaking near 15 patients in summer and winter. RSV (green) remains consistently low, rarely exceeding 5 patients.

• A graph shows the number of COVID-19 cases (per 100K) in the Florence area between 2020 - 2023. The largest spike was February 2022.

Information details the prevalence of Long-COVID in SC among adults 18-years and older. 31% reported having COVID. 8% of all SC adults currently report experiencing post-COVID symptoms. 1.1% of all SC adults report currently experiencing long-term symptoms that reduce their ability to carry out day-to-day activities.

Lancaster Area Information

Respiratory Illness Data Tracker in text, representing COVID, Flu, and RSV

Cases of respiratory illnesses in the Lancaster area are low.

A graph showing the recommendations for public health for COVID-19, with threats are LOW, MEDIUM, and HIGH. When low, get tested and stay up-to-date. When medium, get tested, stay up-to-date, and talk to your healthcare provider if you are high risk. When threat of COVID is high, get tested, stay up-to-date, wear a mask indoors, and consider talking to your healthcare provider if you are high risk.

Lancaster region dashboard showing +80% ED visits for respiratory illness, with +100% increases in inpatient Flu and RSV despite a drop in COVID.

Line chart showing SARS-CoV-2 wastewater viral activity levels in South Carolina from 2022 to 2026, with recurring seasonal peaks and troughs over time.

Line graph of weekly COVID-19 ED visit percentages by region (Nov–Feb). Shows a large summer spike peaking near 3.5%, but rates are currently stable and low (mostly below 1%) across all regions.

Line chart of Catawba ER visits. A major January peak of 18% has dropped significantly, sitting at roughly 3% combined cases in mid-February.

Multi-year trend line (Jan 2023–Jan 2026) for SC ED visits involving COVID, Flu, and RSV. Shows a seasonal peak in early 2026 reaching ~12% combined cases, which is now sharply declining.

Line graph of hospitalized respiratory patients in the Lancaster area (2024–2026). Shows a Jan 2026 peak of ~26 combined cases rapidly dropping to near-zero levels.

A graph shows the number of COVID-19 cases (per 100K) in the Lancaster area between 2020 - 2023. The largest spike was January 2022.

Information details the prevalence of Long-COVID in SC among adults 18-years and older. 31% reported having COVID. 8% of all SC adults currently report experiencing post-COVID symptoms. 1.1% of all SC adults report currently experiencing long-term symptoms that reduce their ability to carry out day-to-day activities.

Midlands Area Information

Respiratory Illness Data Tracker in text, representing COVID, Flu, and RSV.

Cases of respiratory illnesses are currently low in the Midlands area.

A graph showing the recommendations for public health for COVID-19, with threats are LOW, MEDIUM, and HIGH. When low, get tested and stay up-to-date. When medium, get tested, stay up-to-date, and talk to your healthcare provider if you are high risk. When threat of COVID is high, get tested, stay up-to-date, wear a mask indoors, and consider talking to your healthcare provider if you are high risk.

Midlands region dashboard showing -2% ED visits for respiratory illness, decreasing inpatient virus counts across the board, and "Very High" wastewater viral activity in Richland, and “Low” wastewater viral activity in Kershaw.

Line chart showing SARS-CoV-2 wastewater viral activity levels in South Carolina from 2022 to 2026, with recurring seasonal peaks and troughs over time.

Line graph of weekly COVID-19 ED visit percentages by region (Nov–Feb). Shows a large summer spike peaking near 3.5%, but rates are currently stable and low (mostly below 1%) across all regions.

Line chart of Midlands ER visits. Shows a steady decline from a December peak (16%), stabilizing at roughly 4% combined cases in February.

Multi-year trend line (Jan 2023–Jan 2026) for SC ED visits involving COVID, Flu, and RSV. Shows a seasonal peak in early 2026 reaching ~12% combined cases, which is now sharply declining.

Line graph of hospitalized respiratory patients in the Midlands area (2024–2026). Recent activity peaked near 37 combined cases and is now trending downward toward 10.

A graph shows the number of COVID-19 cases (per 100K) in the midlands area between 2020 - 2023. The largest spike was January 2022.

Information details the prevalence of Long-COVID in SC among adults 18-years and older. 31% reported having COVID. 8% of all SC adults currently report experiencing post-COVID symptoms. 1.1% of all SC adults report currently experiencing long-term symptoms that reduce their ability to carry out day-to-day activities.

About the Project

MUSC's COVID-19 Epidemiology Intelligence Project analysis has been developed to:

  1. Provide analysis of trends in the COVID-19 epidemic to assist with understanding the current and projected status of transmission, impacts to the community and hospital system, and the success of mitigation efforts. Our goal is also to provide information that can help assess each stage of the pandemic and provide vital health information to our community.
  2. Help us better understand and predict the critical needs of our hospitals, health care teams, in the Charleston, Berkeley, Dorchester, Florence, Marion, Darlington, Williamsburg, Chester, Lancaster, Kershaw, Richland, and Fairfield communities so that we can plan for and mitigate the impact of COVID-19 to the best of our ability.
  3. Provide reliable data to help guide and support decision making by policymakers, business leaders, and members of the general public across the aforementioned regions.

Data used in trend analysis comes from SCDHEC, MUSC clinical data, and The Center for Disease Control. Data used in the models comes from the Census Bureau, literature reviews, The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and internal clinical data.

How Often Are the Graphs Updated?

The goal of the project is to update analysis once per week.

Project Team

  • Michael D. Sweat, Ph.D., professor, MUSC Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences; director, Division of Global and Community Health; and faculty director, MUSC Center for Global Health – Project Director
  • Veronique Whittaker, MPH, Lead research analyst, Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Division of Global and Community Health
  • Eric Meissner, M.D., Ph.D., assistant professor, Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases
  • Kathleen Ellis, executive director, MUSC Center for Global Health

With special thanks to:

  • Claire Bailey, MPH, RD, former program coordinator, Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Division of Global and Community Health
  • Virginia “Ginny” Fonner, Ph.D., MPH, former assistant professor, Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Division of Global and Community Health

And our medical student volunteers from early 2020:

  • William “Alex” Parler, MUSC College of Medicine student
  • Gregory "Brian" Elmore, MUSC College of Medicine student

Methods & Metrics

  • Weekly Percent Change of MUSC Emergency Department Visits with a COVID-19, Flu, or RSV Diagnosis -This is the change in the weekly percentage of people in Emergency Departments due to Influenza-like-illness across MUSC's regional hospitals. These percentages are drawn directly from internal MUSC data.  
  • Average Weekly Deaths due to COVID-19 -This is the average number of weekly deaths due to COVID-19 per 100k people in South Carolina. These data are drawn from: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_weeklydeaths_totaldeathratecrude_45
  • Percentage of Emergency Room Visits for COVID-19, Flu, and RSV in South Carolina -These data are presented by the CDC and are updated weekly. Data available at: https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/2023-Respiratory-Virus-Response-NSSP-Emergency-Dep/vutn-jzwm
  • MUSC Inpatient COVID-19, Influenza, RSV Patients -These data come directly from MUSC and are reported daily counts. We update these data weekly. If the cases are below 5, we will report this as an N/A.
  • South Carolina COVID-19 Wastewater Viral Activity Levels -These are current wastewater viral activity levels of SARS-COV-2 across wastewater treatment plants or sampling locations in the state of South Carolina. These levels are drawn from CDC and are updated weekly. Data available at: https://www.cdc.gov/nwss/rv/COVID19-statetrend.html?stateval=South%20Carolina
  • Household Pulse Survey -These data are drawn from The U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, as part of an ongoing partnership between the Census Bureau and The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and includes questions to assess the prevalence of post-COVID-19 conditions (long COVID), on the experimental Household Pulse Survey. These data are weighted, and the details can be found at: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/pulse/long-covid.htm

Covid-19 Impact Criterion for Level Status

These community risk levels are informed by The Center for Disease Control's calculation of COVID-19 risk and public health recommendations. The thresholds are for the Charleston Metro Area (Charleston, Berkeley, and Dorchester). Further information can be found on the CDC website (Center for Disease Control and Prevention Website).

We report the growth rate of COVID-19 in weekly Internal MUSC Emergency Department visits and hospital admissions per 100k people. Risk Levels are defined as follows: Low, Medium, and High. We will include the wastewater data if it becomes available across all sites again.

LOW: The weekly ED visits are under 5% for two consecutive weeks.
MEDIUM: The weekly ED visits are above 5%. 
HIGH: The weekly ED visits are above 10%.    
Metrics shown reflect the day events occurred, not the day they were reported. DHEC releases data on a weekly basis.