p Values and
95% Confidence Interval
Question: What's the difference between p value and 95% Confidence
Interval (CI)?
Answer: They contain the same kernel of information, but the 95% CI
contains more information.
Example:
The Odds Ratio (OR) for an infant dying because of Sudden Infant Death
Syndrome was found to be 2.5 for households where the mother smoked
cigarettes. The p value was < .05.
Three different studies showed the same Odds Ratio. They showed different
CIs, however.
Study #1 showed an OR of 2.5 with a 95% CI from 2.4-2.6
Study #2 showed an OR of 2.5 with a 95% CI from 1.4-3.6
Study #3 showed an OR of 2.5 with a 95% CI from 0.4-5.6
What can you say from these results?
Studies 1 and 2 were "statistically significant," with a
p value < .05. We know that because the CI does not include 1.
Study 3 included an OR of 1 in the 95% CI, and therefore the p value
was not < .05.
Study 1 had a more precise estimate of the true OR, with a very small
95% CI.